RIO likely to fall further

RIO found support at the 38.2% retracement level (May '10 low to Feb '11 high) but in my opinion it is likely to fall further. The 50% retracement level ($73.50 or so) looks the most likely target. Timing wise I am looking at mid to late April. If that fails to hold we could be looking at a fall to the mid $60s. Of course this could all change very quickly. Will keep you posted.

RIO hangs on by fingertips

RIO is on the verge of breaking below a long term uploping trend line.

RIO in the 'red zone'

The chart below shows daily bars painted red and blue. Statistically this means little particularly on the RIO chart. But there is one thing you can be certain of. The share price will not fall dramatically while the bars are blue - mainly because once they fall far enough the bars will turn red. The converse is also true. When the bars are red, there is the possibility (not necessarily a probability) that a large decline can take place. The second chart below shows the decline for the period May - September 2006. Essentially it is meant to highlight that following the red bars would have kept you out of the market during the entire decline. Such a strategy would enable you to avoid a '2008 type' severe decline which - in case you have forgotten is shown in the third chart below.